2026Halfway through the year, the global air cargo market, which was supposed to enter the traditional off-season, unexpectedly emerged from a very resilient Red Sea curve.
Image source: Internet
According to freight rate benchmark platformXenetaThe latest data released this year6Global air cargo demand surged year-on-year in March7%. But the strange thing is that while the cargo volume is soaring, the spot freight rate has been soaring a while ago (Spot Rate) started to apply the brakes, showing a "high-level relaxation" attitude.
Image source: Internet
Demand surges, freight rates slow downWho is behind this crazy delivery?
In the past year or two, global air transport has been almost completely dominated by packages from cross-border e-commerce platforms (B2C) such as Temu and Shein. However, as overseas markets such as the European Union have tightened their tax-free quota (de minimis) policies for low-value parcels, the dividends of e-commerce businesses that rely on the volume of small parcels transported by air have begun to cool down in stages.However, air freight capacity has not been idle because the hard technology industry, led by artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors, has quickly filled this gap.
exist6In the freight composition in March, the proportion of high-value high-tech cargo on the routes from Asia to North America and Asia to Europe soared sharply. Due to the chip,AIThe global delivery of servers and related hardware equipment has entered a white-hot stage. These high-tech supply chains, which are extremely time-sensitive and have extremely high value, are scrambling for space at all costs.
XenetaThe data shows that affected by this,6Global air cargo capacity increased only slightly in month3%, the transportation demand gap is still huge. Especially on the Pan-Pacific route, the freight rate is still close to that of the same period last year.40%high support. It can be said that it isAIThe crazy investment cycle has given a shot in the arm to the originally sluggish air freight market.
Crazy shipping prices for parcels,Why did you hit the brakes suddenly?
now thatAIWith demand for semiconductors so strong, why has the rise in global spot freight rates begun to ease?
This is mainly due to the structural recovery of global air transport capacity. As the Red Sea crisis and the fluctuations in the Middle East situation in the aviation field in the past two months have gradually entered a period of normalization and adaptation, the transshipment efficiency of key hub airports in the Middle East has begun to steadily recover.During the summer season, major airlines not only increased bellyhold capacity, but also accurately allocated cargo aircraft resources to busy routes out of Asia.
On the other hand, the recent slight drop in aviation fuel prices has also reduced airlines’ variable costs. The rising supply of transportation capacity and the loosening of costs have jointly put the brakes on the soaring spot freight rates. The current air freight market presents aThe delicate balance of "supply and demand are strong, but prices are rationally corrected".
Outlook for the second half of the year:The "new normal of freight forwarding" under high fluctuations
For cross-border practitioners and freight forwarders, this mid-year wave“AI"Bailout" sends a clear signal: the era of high freight prices will not end easily, but the logic supporting freight prices has changed.
AIThe freight demand of the chip industry is not only high per passenger, but also often highly cyclical and concentrated among giants. This means that scattered small and medium-sized sellers and traditional general cargo still have to face high barriers to space competition in the competition for transportation capacity.
With the traditional back-to-school season, Black Friday, Christmas and other major cross-border e-commerce promotion cycles approaching in the second half of the year, when the rigid demand for technology hardware superimposes the seasonal peak season of traditional e-commerce, global air freight space will most likely face a new round of extreme squeeze.
Freight prices are experiencing a short period ofAfter the "slowdown", it is very likely that there will be another surge at the end of the third quarter. Locking space in advance and diversifying transportation capacity are still required courses for overseas companies in the second half of this year.
Do you think this waveAICan the air freight boom continued until the end of the year? Has your freight forwarding quote dropped recently? Welcome to chat in the comment area!